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Analysis of selected sectors and countries
Herausgeber
Quelle
Schlagwörter
Emissionsentwicklung, EU ETS, emissions trading, emission development
Förderkennzeichen (FKZ)
3719425050
Forschungskennzahl
Zitation
Mendelevitch, R., Graichen, V., Matthes, F., Loreck, C., Hermann, H., Graichen, J., Emele, L., Schäppi, B., Kaufmann, S., Kessler, L., Mäder, A., & Füssler, J. (2025). Effectiveness of EU Emissions Trading: What drives emission developments? German Environment Agency. https://doi.org/10.60810/openumwelt-7668
Zusammenfassung englisch
European emissions trading (EU ETS) is a central component of German and European climate policy. This final report summarises the results of a research project that investigated the causes of emissions trends in the most relevant sectors in terms of emissions (combustion, iron and steel industry, cement clinker production, refineries) of the EU ETS 1 in the period 2005 and, depending on the sector or approach, until 2017/2019/2022. As part of the project, the development of the four sectors mentioned was analysed with regard to emissions and other parameters and their causes. In addition, two decomposition analyses were used to identify the main drivers of emissions trends in cement clinker production and iron and steel production in the EU ETS.
Organisationseinheiten
Übersetzungen
Verbundene Publikation
Annex B: Decomposition of CO2 emissions from iron and steelmaking in the EU
(2025)
Iron and steel industry plays an important role for value creation and employment in the EU-27. It is also the industrial sector with the highest absolute CO2 emissions. Since the introduction ofthe European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) in 2005, total sector emissions covered by the scheme have declined from 235 Mt CO2 to 178 Mt CO2, in 2022. With two rounds of scope extensions for the EU ETS, emissions from installations now covered by the scheme have most probably declined even stronger. Note that these figures also do not include indirect emissions from electricity consumption, which are particularly important on the EAF-route, and DRI-EAF route. In this paper we are able to shed light on the drivers of the declining trend, including both direct and indirect emissions, and with a special focus on the role of the EU ETS. The decline of emissions from iron and steelmaking covered by the EU ETS in the EU 27+UK was primarily driven by a reduction of production on the emissions intensive BF-BOF-route. There was no major shift in production routes, but rather production was decreased in times of economic downturn, and instead of full recovery due to renewed economic development, increasing demand was also met with a boost in imports. No shift from the BF-BOF-route to the electricity based EAF-route could be observed, which would have reduced direct emissions to less than 20%. This could be due to limited scrap resources in the EU, the need for new large scale investments in EAF installations and large-scale electricity connectors, and the limited substitutability of EAF-based crude steel and crude steel for primary production routes (BF-BOF route, DRI-EAF route). On the country level, Italy and UK have seen the largest decline in emissions. While the Spanish iron and steelmaking industry was heavily hit by the financial and later by the Euro crisis, the German steel industry was much less affected. Neither a significant change in the energy mix on a particular route nor a change in technology influencing efficiency was found in the data. Hence, at least the combination of both had no substantial effect on emissions decline. Emission reductions in power generation are clearly mirrored in the data on indirect emissions of the iron and steel production.
Decomposition analysis of CO₂ emissions in the European cement sector
(Umweltbundesamt, 2022)
Based on a methodological approach developed by Branger und Quirion (2015), the authors analyse the drivers governing the development of CO2 emissions from cement production from 2005 to 2018 for the EU28 as a whole and selected EU countries using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method. At the EU28 level, CO2 emissions declined from 150 MtCO2 in 2005 to 120 MtCO2 in 2018. We find that effects on cement clinker demand govern the development of CO2 emissions in the EU cement sector. Spain and Italy, among the EU countries most severely affected by the economic crisis of 2008/09 and the European debt crisis in 2011/12, are the major contributors to reductions in CO2 emissions. The main drivers behind the observed decline are construction activity and further activity effects. While the first one is arguably not directly affected by CO2 pricing, the latter needs to be understood in more detail to allow for clear conclusions.
Development of combustion installations under the EU ETS
(German Environment Agency, 2024)
The generation of electricity and heat is the largest single activity covered by the EU Emissions Trad-ing System (EU ETS). This report provides an in-depth analysis of the electricity sector since the EU ETS was introduced in 2005. It allows key drivers behind the development in capacities, generation levels and emissions to be identified. It thereby provides key information from past developments which form the basis for future projections and the design of tailored policy instruments. The re-port provides information on the European level as well as for 10 selected European countries: the Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain and the United Kingdom.
Development of the cement clinker production under the EU ETS
(German Environment Agency, 2025)
This report summarizes the main trends and drivers of the cement sector in the time period 2005-2017 in the EU28 and provides a compilation of key figures on the cement clinker industry for selected countries. The report focuses on the developments during the third trading period of the EU ETS since 2013 and analyses the countries within the EU28 with the highest contribution to total emissions of cement clinker production: Germany, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Poland and Greece.By providing key information from past developments, this report sets a solid basis for future projections and the design of climate policy.
Development of the iron and steelmaking sector under the EU ETS
(German Environment Agency, 2024)
This report aims to describe key developments of the iron and steelmaking sector in the period from 2005 to 2019. It identifies key drivers behind the trends in emissions, production levels, investments, and the market environment on the country and installation level by giving an overview of the EU-28 level as well as detailed information for eight selected European countries: Germany, Italy, France, Poland, Austria, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic.By providing key information from past developments, this report sets a solid basis for future projections and the design of climate policy.