Pathways to an EU in 2050 with net-zero GHG-emissions

Duscha, V., Al-Dabas, K., Deac, G., Eckstein, J., Frank, F., Weißenburger, B., Neuner, F., Emele, L., Böttcher, H., Hennenberg, K., Hesse, T., Ludig, S., Scheffler, M., Wiegmann, K., & Popovski, E. (2026). Pathways to an EU in 2050 with net-zero GHG-emissions. Umweltbundesamt. https://doi.org/10.60810/openumwelt-8104

Zusammenfassung englisch

The project aimed to identify how the EU can achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Three transformation pathways were modelled based on different assumptions. A reference scenario reflecting current policies showed that climate neutrality cannot be reached under existing measures. Two target scenarios were then developed: one relying mainly on technological solutions such as CCS, and another focusing on behavioural changes, including dietary shifts and electric mobility. In the latter, emission reduction has priority, with remaining emissions offset largely through natural sinks.