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Herausgeber
Quelle
Schlagwörter
EU emission trading, CBAM, Carbon Leakage
Förderkennzeichen (FKZ)
3718 42 001 0
Forschungskennzahl
Zitation
Lutz, C., Banning, M., Paroussos, L., Fragkiadakis, D., & Vrontisi, Z. (2025). Climate Protection Scenarios until 2050 Considering CO₂ Price Differences and Carbon Leakage - Central report. German Environment Agency. https://doi.org/10.60810/openumwelt-7624
Organisationseinheiten
Übersetzungen
Verbundene Publikation
Climate Protection Scenarios until 2050 Considering CO₂ Price Differences and Carbon Leakage - Technical report
(German Environment Agency, 2025)
Two types of large-scale models with different modelling philosophies are used to quantify socioeconomic effects in scenarios in which the EU moves forward in climate policy and applies different design options under the EU emissions trading system (ETS) combined with a Carbon Border Adjustment (CBAM).One model, GEM-E3, is a computable general equilibrium model that follows neoclassical theory, while the other model, GINFORS-E, is a macroeconometric model that follows a post-Keynesian approach. The results of both models suggest that an effective CBAM plays a significant role in reducing the risk of carbon leakage. The key results on trade, production and emission effects also show, by and large, little quantitative variation between the two models, in spite of their different philosophies. This Technical Report documents firstly how the two models have been harmonised as far as possible in terms of external assumptions on, e.g., global population, GDP development and on energy prices, so that the differences in results in the later, policy related, scenarios are indeed related to model differences, and not simply to different key assumptions.This is followed by exploratory scenario runs that address the impact of the EU moving forward versus the case that global uniform CO2 prices achieve either a 2 degrees, or a 1.5 degrees climate policy goal.
Models for the analysis of international interrelations of the EU ETS and of a CBAM - Extended model overview
(German Environment Agency, 2025)
This report is part of the overall project “Models for the analysis of international interrelations of the EU-ETS and of a CBAM”.It provides an overview of existing models that are in principle capable of representing the key topics of the overall research project: namely, a) the potential “carbon leakage” impacts from “uneven” carbon pricing, b) policies that address this risk, e.g. a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), and c) more general, key economic impacts of GHG mitigation scenarios with different total global mitigation ambitions. This overview also includes the two models applied in this project - GINFORS-E and GEM-E3.
Models for the analysis of international interrelations of the EU ETS and of a CBAM - Summary
(German Environment Agency, 2025)
Two types of large-scale models with different modelling philosophies are used to quantify socioeconomic effects in scenarios in which the EU moves forward in climate policy and applies different design options under the EU emissions trading system (ETS) combined with a Carbon Border Adjustment (CBAM).One model, GEM-E3, is a computable general equilibrium model that follows neoclassical theory, while the other model, GINFORS-E, is a macroeconometric model that follows a post-Keynesian approach. The results of both models suggest that an effective CBAM plays a significant role in reducing the risk of carbon leakage. The key results on trade, production and emission effects also show, by and large, little quantitative variation between the two models, in spite of their different philosophies. The overall report consists of four separate reports next to this Summary Report:The Central Report covers the results of the key policy scenarios on the EU-ETS design regarding allocation and the CBAM. It also includes some key sensitivity analyses on trade assumptions, climate policy ambition in major trading partner countries, and on the scope of the CBAM;The Technical Report documents how the two models have been harmonised in terms of external assumptions on, e.g., global population, GDP development and on energy prices. This is followed by exploratory scenario runs that address the impact of the EU moving forward versus the case that global uniform CO2 prices achieve either a 2 degrees, or a 1.5 degrees climate policy goal.A further report provides an overview of existing models that are capable of representing issues of carbon leakage and of policies that address it. The report focuses on the two types of models applied in this project’s modelling work (CGE and macroeconometric), but also covers prominent partial equilibrium (energy system) models and Integrated Assessment Models (IAM);Finally, a journal article analysing integrated assessment models used for highly aggregated assessment scenario analyses with a time horizon until 2100.