Economic models for assessing the economic effects of linking emissions trading schemes

Abstract

Ziel dieses Beitrags ist die Untersuchung von Ansätzen für eine quantitative Analyse ökonomischer Effekte aus der bilateralen Verknüpfung von Emissionshandelssystemen. Zu diesem Zweck wurden verschiedene ökonomische Modelle, die für die Analyse dieser wirtschaftlichen Effekte grundsätzlich als geeignet erachtet wurden, untersucht. Die Überprüfung basiert auf einer Reihe spezifischer Kriterien: dem Modelltyp, dem Zeithorizont des Modells und der Akteure, der Abdeckung von Regionen, wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten, Sektoren und Treibhausgasen sowie der Möglichkeit einer sektoralen Disaggregation. Die Bewertung zeigt, dass die fünf am besten geeigneten Modelle E3ME, GEM-E3, PACE, POLES und TIMES sind. Die Ergebnisse für diese Modelle werden in einem Abschnitt ausführlich diskutiert. Quelle: Verlagsinformation

The objective of this paper is to review approaches for a quantitative analysis of economic effects from bilateral linking of Emission Trading Systems. To this end, economic models that were principally deemed suitable for analysing these economic effects have been reviewed. The review is based on a number of specific criteria: the model type, the time horizon of the model and agents, the coverage of regions, economic activities, sectors and greenhouse gases as well as the possibility of sectoral disaggregation. The assessment shows that the five most suitable models are E3ME, GEM-E3, PACE, POLES and TIMES. The results for these models are provided in detail in the model discussion part of the paper. Quelle: Verlagsinformation

Before linking emissions trading systems, there should be a good understanding of the expected economic implications: How could linking affect the development of the common allowance price, the development of emissions or industrial production, capi-tal flows or liquidity? Answering these questions requires a multitude of data and as-sumptions and therefore usually the use of economic models. This report gives an overview of various economic models that are suitable for as-sessing the economic effects of linking. It analyses the economic indicators relevant for the assessment of the effects of linking, formulates requirements for economic mo-dels to answer this question, discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different modelling approaches and gives an assessment of which models are suitable in prin-ciple for the assessment of linking. Five models were selected for a more detailed de-scription: E3ME, GEM-E3, PACE, POLES, and TIMES-MARKAL.