The extension of the EU ETS 1 to maritime transport: impacts on sectoral decarbonisation

Abstract

This publication presents a scenario-based modelling assessment of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS 1) and the FuelEU Maritime Regulation (FEUM), evaluating their individual and combined impacts on the decarbonisation of the European maritime transport sector. Using the PRIMES Maritime and PRIMES-TREMOVE models, the study quantifies emissions, energy use, fuel mix, and system costs across multiple policy scenarios aligned with the EU’s Fit-for-55 package and long-term climate targets consistent with the 2040 Climate Target Plan. The study also explores the potential benefits of extending EU ETS 1 to small vessels and inland waterways, highlighting additional emissions reductions and fuel transitions.