The WORLD Model Development and The Integrated Assessment of the Global Natural Resources Supply

Abstract

The report describes the WORLD6-Model which was adapted in the SimRess project. WORLD6 model is developed to simulate potential future supply and scarcity of a numberof natural resources. The main objective of this report is to outline the overall structure of the WORLD6 model and provide a detailed description of the “resources” module implemented in the model. In the WORLD6 model, resources are clustered under METALS, MATERIALS and ENERGY sub-modules. For each of the modelled resources, model simulation results were presented and an associated integrated assessment was provided under separate sections of this report. In general, the WORLD6 model simulation results suggests that most of the supply peaks for metals, materials and fossil fuels will occure around the middle of this century. This will lead to some of the most serious industrial, political and social challenges of our times and will require careful preparation and research in order not to disrupt the functioning of society. Substantially better degree of recycling offers a long term sustainable and secure supply of most resources.