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Veröffentlichung Anpassung an den Klimawandel(2013) Schauser, Inke; Vetter, AndreasThe German Adaptation Strategy launched a process to assess theconsequences of climate change and identify key areas of adaptationmeasures. For its effective and efficient implementation it isimportant to set priorities based on generally recognized criteria.This paper proposes a cross-sectoral prioritization concept forasses sing and selecting federal adaptation measures. Based on aliterature review, five key criteria could be distinguished (strategicimportance, urgency, side-effects, no-regret, flexibility), which weresupplemented with criteria to assess the technical and socioeconomic feasibility (economical aspects, acceptance). The multicriteriaapproach enhances transparency and traceability of decisionmaking in the adaptation process. Taking account of climateimpacts (path 1) and prioritizing adaptation measures using themulti-criteria approach (path 2) constitute only a first step.Step 2 integrates the findings of path 1 and 2 to select appropriatemeasures for an Adaptation Action Plan.
Quelle: Anpassung an den Klimawandel: Priorisierung von Maßnahmen innerhalb derDeutschen Anpassungsstrategie/ Andreas Vetter;Inke SchauserVeröffentlichung Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany(2015) Zacharias, Stefan; Koppe, Christina; Mücke, Hans-GuidoThe influence of future climate change on the occurrence of heat waves and its implications for heat wave-related mortality due to ischemic heart diseases (IHD) in Germany is studied. Simulations of 19 regional climate models with a spatial resolution of 0.25˚ Ž 0.25˚ forced by the moderate climate change scenario A1B are analyzed. Three model time periods of 30 years are evaluated, representing present climate (1971-2000), near future climate (2021-2050), and remote future climate (2069-2098). Heat waves are defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with daily mean air temperature above the 97.5th percentile of the all-season temperature distribution. Based on the model simulations, future heat waves in Germany will be significantly more frequent, longer lasting and more intense. By the end of the 21st century, the number of heat waves will be tripled compared to present climate. Additionally, the average duration of heat waves will increase by 25%, accompanied by an increase of the average temperature during heat waves by about 1 K. Regional analyses show that stronger than average climate change effects are observed particularly in the southern regions of Germany. Furthermore, we investigated climate change impacts on IHD mortality in Germany applying temperature projections from 19 regional climate models to heat wave mortality relationships identified in a previous study. Future IHD excess deaths were calculated both in the absence and presence of some acclimatization (i.e., that people are able to physiologically acclimatize to enhanced temperature levels in the future time periods by 0% and 50%, respectively). In addition to changes in heat wave frequency, we incorporated also changes in heat wave intensity and duration into the future mortality evaluations. The results indicate that by the end of the 21st century the annual number of IHD excess deaths in Germany attributable to heat waves is expected to rise by factor 2.4 and 5.1 in the acclimatization and non-acclimatization approach, respectively. Even though there is substantial variability across the individual model simulations, it is most likely that the future burden of heat will increase considerably. The obtained results point to public health interventions to reduce the vulnerability of the population to heat waves. Quelle: http://www.mdpi.comVeröffentlichung Determining the probability of cyanobacterial blooms: the application of Bayesian networks in multiple(2015)A Bayesian network model was developed to assess the combined influence of nutrient conditions and climate on the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms within lakes of diverse hydrology and nutrient supply. Physicochemical, biological, and meteorological observations were collated from 20 lakes located at different latitudes and characterized by a range of sizes and trophic states. Using these data, we built a Bayesian network to (1) analyze the sensitivity of cyanobacterial bloom development to different environmental factors and (2) determine the probability that cyanobacterial blooms would occur. Blooms were classified in three categories of hazard (low, moderate, and high) based on cell abundances. The most important factors determining cyanobacterial bloom occurrence were water temperature, nutrient availability, and the ratio of mixing depth to euphotic depth. The probability of cyanobacterial blooms was evaluated under different combinations of total phosphorus and water temperature. The Bayesian network was then applied to quantify the probability of blooms under a future climate warming scenario. The probability of the "high hazardousŁ category of cyanobacterial blooms increased 5% in response to either an increase in water temperature of 0.8˚C (initial water temperature above 24˚C) or an increase in total phosphorus from 0.01 mg/L to 0.02 mg/L. Mesotrophic lakes were particularly vulnerable to warming. Reducing nutrient concentrations counteracts the increased cyanobacterial risk associated with higher temperatures.Quelle: http://www.esajournals.orgVeröffentlichung Nitrogen deposition and drought events have non-additive effects on plant growth - Evidence from greenhouse experiments(2015)Climate change and nitrogen deposition affect biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, but interactive effects of these global change drivers are poorly understood. We analysed single and interactive effects of nitrogen (N) fertilisation and drought on the growth performance of Calluna vulgaris. We measured biomass production and allocation, tissue nutrient (N, phosphorus (P) and carbon (C)) concentrations, N allocation patterns (using 15N tracer) and plant's water status (using ä 13C signatures) as response variables in a 2-year greenhouse experiment. N fertilisation increased biomass production and biomass shoot:root ratios. 15N allocation patterns indicated an increasing aboveground N allocation following N fertilisation. Tissue ä 13C signatures were higher in N-fertilised plants. Plant responses to drought were weak. We found strong antagonistic interaction effects of N fertilisation and drought for biomass production. ä13C values peaked when N-fertilised plants were subjected to drought, indicating that N fertilisation increased the evaporative demands of Calluna plants, likely due to increased biomass shoot:root ratios, which in turn resulted in higher drought susceptibility. As an important consequence, even slight drought events may weaken the competitiveness of Calluna when interacting with enhanced airborne N loads. Single-factor studies, thus, need to be complemented by multi-factor analyses to assess conceivable impacts of co-occurring global change drivers.Quelle: http://www.tandfonline.comVeröffentlichung Transport-related measures to mitigate climate change in Basel, Switzerland: A health-effectiveness comparison study(2015) Perez, L.; Trüeb, S.; Cowie, H.; Keuken, M.P.; Mudu, P.; Ragettli, M.S.; Sarigiannis, D.A.; Tuomisto, J.; Tobollik, Myriam; Vienneau, D.; Sabel, C.F.; Kuenzli, N.Background
Local strategies to reduce green-house gases (GHG) imply changes of non-climatic exposure patterns.
Objective
To assess the health impacts of locally relevant transport-related climate change policies in Basel, Switzerland.
Methods
We modelled change in mortality and morbidity for the year 2020 based on several locally relevant transport scenarios including all decided transport policies up to 2020, additional realistic and hypothesized traffic reductions, as well as ambitious diffusion levels of electric cars. The scenarios were compared to the reference condition in 2010 assumed as status quo. The changes in non-climatic population exposure included ambient air pollution, physical activity, and noise. As secondary outcome, changes in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were put into perspective with predicted changes of CO2 emissions and fuel consumption.
Results
Under the scenario that assumed a strict particle emissions standard in diesel cars and all planned transport measures, 3% of premature deaths could be prevented from projected PM2.5 exposure reduction. A traffic reduction scenario assuming more active trips provided only minor added health benefits for any of the changes in exposure considered. A hypothetical strong support to electric vehicles diffusion would have the largest health effectiveness given that the energy production in Basel comes from renewable sources.
Conclusion
The planned local transport related GHG emission reduction policies in Basel are sensible for mitigating climate change and improving public health. In this context, the most effective policy remains increasing zero-emission vehicles.
Quelle: http://www.sciencedirect.comVeröffentlichung Marginal Calluna populations are more resistant to climate change, but not under high-nitrogen loads(2016) Belz, Kristina; Calvo, Leonor; Oheimb, Goddert von; Meyer-Grünefeldt, Maren; Härdtle, WernerThe dominant plant species of European heathlands Calluna vulgarisis considered vulnerable to drought and enhanced nitrogen (N) loads. However, impacts may vary across the distribution range of Callunaheathlands. We tested the hypothesis that Callunaof southern and eastern marginal populations (MP) are more resistant to drought events than plants of central populations (CP), and that this is mainly due to trait differences such as biomass allocation patterns. Furthermore, we hypothesised that N fertilisation can offset differences in drought susceptibility between CP and MP. We conducted a full-factorial 2-year greenhouse experiment with Calluna plants of CP and MP and quantified growth responses in terms of biomass production, allocation and tissue ä13C signatures. Biomass production, shoot-root ratios and tissue ä13C values of 1-year-old plants were higher for CP than for MP, indicating a higher drought susceptibility of CP. These trait differences were not observed for 2-year-old plants. N fertilisation increased shoot-root ratios of 1- and 2-year-old plants and across populations due to a stimulation of the aboveground biomass allocation. As a consequence, population-related differences in drought susceptibility were offset for N-fertilised plants. We concluded that Callunaplants originating from different populations developed adaptive traits to local climates, which determined their drought sensitivity. However, the higher drought resistance of MP can be attenuated by an N-induced increase in shoot-root ratios. This suggests that analyses on plant growth responses to global change should include multi-factor approaches with a focus on different populations throughout a species distribution range.Quelle: http://link.springer.comVeröffentlichung Potential health risk of allergenic pollen with climate change associated spreading capacity(2016) Höflich, Conny; Kaiser, Lorraine; Mücke, Hans-Guido; Straff, WolfgangBackground: Global climate changes may influence the geographical spread of allergenic plants thuscausing new allergen challenges.
Objective: Allergy patients from two German federal states were compared for their status quo sensitization to ragweed, an establishing allergen, olive, a non-established allergen, and the native allergensbirch, mugwort, and ash.
Methods: Between 2011 and 2013, 476 adult allergy patients per region were recruited. Patients completed a questionnaire, participated in a medical interview, and underwent skin prick testing and bloodwithdrawal for analysis of specific IgE to allergen components (ISAC technology). Data on regional pollenload from 2006 to 2011 were acquired from the German Pollen Information Service Foundation.
Results: Prick test reactivity to ragweed and ash, respectively, was lower in Bavaria than in NRW (ragweed:p = 0.001, aOR = 0.54; ash: p = 0.001, aOR = 0.59), whereas prick test reactivity to olive was higher (p = 0.000,aOR = 3.09). Prick test reactivity to birch and mugwort, respectively, did not significantly differ. 1% (1/127)of patients with prick test reactivity to ragweed showed sIgE to Amb a 1, and 65% (86/132) of olive-but-not-ash reactive patients showed sIgE to Ole e 1 (NRW: 67%, Bavaria: 65%; p = 0.823, OR = 0.91). Regionaldifferences in sensitization pattern were neither explainable bycross-reactivity to pollen pan-allergensnor non-exposure variables nor by reported plant population or pollen data.
Conclusions: Spread of ragweed and particularly olive may result in prompt occurrence of allergic symptoms. Early identification of invasive allergens due to climate change does need time and spatial closemeshed measurement of respective indicator allergens and sensitization pattern.
Quelle: www.sciencedirect.comVeröffentlichung Cyanobacterial blooms. Ecology, prevention, mitigation and control: Editorial to a CYANOCOST Special Issue(2016) Ibelings, Bastiaan W.; Fastner, Jutta; Bormans, Myriam; Visser, Petra M.This is the Editorial to a Special Issue entitled "Cyanobacterial blooms. Ecology, prevention, mitigation and controlŁ. The Special Issue is a product of a European COST Action, CYANOCOST. In this Special Issue, contributions describe methods currently available for the management of cyanobacterial blooms, a key issue threatening the ecological functioning of lakes and the ecosystem services they provide . Contributions start with a section on the prevention of blooms, through the restriction of nutrient availability for cyanobacterial development at three levels: (1) in the catchment, (2) at the inflow to the lake and (3) in-lake methods, including nutrient release from the sediment. Then follows a section on control of blooms where blooms could be formed in the lake, but the chosen treatment restricts cyanobacterial growth to a level where risks and negative effects are minimal, e.g., artificial mixing, flushing or biomanipulation. The Special Issue continues with contributions on mitigation where blooms do develop, but physical and chemical methods mitigate the negative effects. For effective control key traits of the dominant cyanobacteria, characteristics of the lake system and an adequate design of the control method must come together. Each contribution answers questions like: what is the proposed or proven working mechanism of a given method? What have been the successes and failures? What are the reasons for success or failure? How is success linked to characteristics of the waterbody being treated? The Special Issue is concluded with contributions aiming at social and political aspects of bloom management .
Quelle: http://link.springer.com