Accelerating a shift from road to rail freight transport in Germany - Three scenarios

Abstract

As a core pillar of its greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policy the European Commission (EC) envisages shifting 50% of long distance freight transport to rail and inland navigation by 2050. While technical solutions to mitigate GHG emissions are well researched, non-technical policy paths still need further attention. It is in particular unclear, how assumptions on framework conditions impact the result of policy options in such long term forecasts. In this paper the authors therefore look at the performance of a set of measures to achieve a given modal shift target in front of alternative baseline developments of the German economy. The authors chose a 10 percentage point increase of national freight movements on rail to be achieved by 2030. The results found by applying the ASTRA-D system dynamics model indicate that the stronger the economic growth is assumed, the more easy the achievement of targets will be. In this case the authors run into much more serious capacity problems at the railways, but the authors can suspect that under more dynamic economic conditions capacity enlargement measures can be implemented more easily.<BR>Quelle: http://trid.trb.org/