Organisationseinheit: Deutschland, Umweltbundesamt, Fachgebiet V.3.3 - Ökonomische Grundsatzfragen des Emissionshandels, Monitoring, Auswertungen
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Ursprungsdatum
2019
Stadt
Berlin
Land
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Publikationen
Models for the analysis of international interrelations of the EU ETS and of a CBAM
(2025) Lutz, Christian; Banning, Maximilian; Reuschel, Saskia; Paroussos, Leonidas; Fragkiadakis, Dimitris; Vrontisi, Zoi; Deutschland. Umweltbundesamt; Gagelmann, Frank
This report is part of the overall project “Models for the analysis of international interrelations of the EU-ETS and of a CBAM”.It provides an overview of existing models that are in principle capable of representing the key topics of the overall research project: namely, a) the potential “carbon leakage” impacts from “uneven” carbon pricing, b) policies that address this risk, e.g. a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), and c) more general, key economic impacts of GHG mitigation scenarios with different total global mitigation ambitions. This overview also includes the two models applied in this project - GINFORS-E and GEM-E3.
Beyond determinism: Accounting for weather variability in the carbon pricing debate for EU agriculture
(2026) Stepanyan, Davit; Neuenfeldt, Sebastian; Spiegel, Alisa; Söder, Mareike; Fournier Gabela, Julio Gustavo; Freund, Florian; Heidecke, Claudia; Osterburg, Bernhard; Gocht, Alexander
Agriculture accounts for 11 per cent of EU greenhouse gas emissions, yet sectoral emissions have stagnated over the past two decades. This paper evaluates carbon pricing in EU agriculture by integrating stochastic yield variability into the CAPRI model. We assess how different carbon price levels affect emissions and outcome uncertainty. Results show that carbon pricing reduces emissions, and higher price levels are associated with lower uncertainty in policy outcomes. While expected results remain similar to deterministic simulations, stochastic modeling reveals greater regional and sectoral heterogeneity. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for production risk when designing agricultural climate policies. © The Author(s) 2026.
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